A new analysis of Canadian government data reveals that study permit approvals for international students are set to drop by nearly half in 2024. If the current trend continues, only 231,000 study permits are expected to be approved this year, compared to 436,000 in 2023, according to a report by ApplyBoard.
The significant decline comes as a result of a 54% drop in study permit applications processed by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023. ApplyBoard forecasts a 39% overall reduction in study permit approvals for the year, with only 230,000 permits likely to be processed in the second half of 2024.
This dramatic drop is much larger than the Canadian immigration minister’s earlier prediction of a 35% decrease due to a newly introduced two-year cap on study permits. The current approval rate for study permits has also fallen from 58% in 2023 to 51% in 2024, below the government’s target of 60%.
Even though the cap exempts K-12, master’s, and PhD students, those programs are also seeing a decline in applications, with forecasts showing a 50% drop in permits for capped post-secondary programs and a 24% decline for cap-exempt programs.
The report highlights that international student enrolment could drop by 45% this fall, which could have severe economic consequences for Canada, as international students contributed $30.9 billion to the country’s GDP in 2022. Additionally, major provinces like Ontario and British Columbia have already seen significant drops in study permit processing, with Ontario experiencing a 70% decrease and BC seeing a 49% decline in Q2 2024 compared to the previous year.
Approval rates have also sharply decreased for students from key source countries, including India, Nigeria, the Philippines, and Nepal, with some countries seeing over a 70% drop in approvals.
Although a final assessment of the impact of the intake cap is pending, early signs suggest that Canada’s international student program is facing significant challenges.